Will BTC go above $20,000? 比特币会超越20,000美元吗?

A common question whenever BTC goes on a bull run. Will it happen in 2020? BTC在牛市中经常遇到的一个常见问题。比特币最终会在2020年突破2万美元吗?

2020 has been an eventful year so far for Bitcoin — after a spectacular price crash in March, BTC still managed to sustain between $8,500 and $9,800 for nearly three months, but never succeeded in breaking through US$10,000. Until the recent bull run, Bitcoin had never managed to sustain close to or above $10,000 for a long time.

$10,000 may be in Bitcoin’s rearview mirror for some time to come, as on July 27th, BTC broke past $10,000 and hasn’t looked back since.

In fact, Bitcoin’s now seems to be teasing the $12k resistance level. Since July 28th, Bitcoin price movement has fluctuated between $11,200 and $11,800 and occasionally touched $12k. Some BTC evangelists even took a step further and made $50k as Bitcoin’s next major target.

What’s driving this latest bull run? Will Bitcoin keep up its momentum, or will BTC once again fall below $10k? You will find no definitive answer here but here are some important factors to take into account.

There are several highlighted factors that are pushing BTC upward: primarily due to the global economic instability caused by the current geopolitical and pandemic around the world. In 2020, we witnessed the instability caused by COVID-19, the stock market crash as well as the US and China trade war. The economic turmoil resulting from COVID-19 has also caused retail investors to reconsider their beliefs about their national currencies, a factor that could also be contributing to Bitcoin’s pump. The incredibly fast and drastic response of the Fed and other central banks to the COVID-induced lockdowns has planted the idea that fiat currencies may not be a consistent yardstick for measuring value.

The massive amount of quantitative easing that the United States central bank decided to execute in 2020 seems to have shaken the public perception of the almighty dollar and other major fiat currencies. As central banks continue to pump liquidity in the system, investors are looking for anything that has a limited supply.

Bitcoin is currently trading almost exactly as the Nasdaq did after 2008’s Great Recession crash. From a narrative and price action perspective, the historical Nasdaq chart and current Bitcoin chart have extremely similar price action. Both the Nasdaq and BTC have similar underlying narratives as markets largely driven by the exponential nature of technology as well.

More investors seem to be acquiring ETH exposure using options in 2020. Ether, being the runner up to Bitcoin in the cryptocurrency space, has become one of the main experimental labs for blockchain scalability backed by large institutional and entrepreneurial development communities. Therefore, it’s natural for ETH to become a speculative asset as more decentralized applications are developed. The upcoming Ethereum 2.0 update for Ethereum and the rapid growth of the DeFi space have proved to be big variables driving the bullish sentiment while adding more credibility to the network.

However, it’s unclear whether or not the momentum that Bitcoin seems to have gained from the global events of this year will continue into the future. There are still huge volumes on the market, and the market is constantly fueled by positive news and the growth of Decentralised Finance (DEFI). But hoping that BTC will run past the previous all-time high of US$20,000, in my opinion, still looks far away.

Despite BTC holding above US$10,000 for one of the longest periods of time in 2020, there is still a good chance that Bitcoin’s current momentum could come to an end and reverse back to the price level at Q2 2020. $10,000 remains a significant psychological benchmark and if BTC breaks that support line, it could commence the end of the recent bull run.

Based on the historical chart, the price of Bitcoin in June, July, and August of 2019 sat comfortably above $10k up to $13,500.

However, in September 2019, BTC lost its momentum and fell to $7,170 midway through December of 2019. Even though Bitcoin’s history of high volatility reduced in recent times, it is still prevalent.

The rise of BTC will be a significant moment for altcoins as well since most cryptocurrencies are pegged to BTC and the price performance of altcoins are often correlated with BTC’s movement. However, do remember that regardless of BTC going on a bull or bear market, Altcoins usually will catch up with the price movement later, so it is important to track BTC price movements frequently! On some occasions, BTC’s pump will cause altcoins’ prices to dip due to higher volume moving into BTC. Investors may be selling their portfolio for BTC hoping for a quick profit.

***Disclaimer: This content is not financial advice and should not form the basis of any financial investment decisions nor be seen as a recommendation to buy or sell any good or product. Trading cryptocurrency is complex and comes with a high risk of losing money. You should carefully consider whether trading cryptocurrencies is right for you and take the time to learn how trading works and decide how much money you are prepared to risk.

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Quick guide:

对于比特币来说,2020年迄今为止是不平凡的一年-在3月一次惊人的价格暴跌之后,BTC在近三个月的时间里仍维持在8,500美元至9,800美元之间,但从未成功突破10,000美元。在最近的牛市之前,比特币从未长久维持在接近或高于10,000美元的水平。

10,000美元可能会在一段时间内出现在比特币的后视镜中,因为7月27日,BTC突破了10,000美元,此后一直没有回头。

实际上,比特币现在似乎在戏弄12,000美元的阻力位。自7月28日以来,比特币价格走势一直在$ 11,200和$ 11,800之间波动,偶尔触及$ 12k。一些BTC传教士甚至更进一步,将$ 50k作为比特币的下一个主要目标。

最新的牛市是由什么推动的?比特币会保持增长势头吗,或者比特币会再次跌至1万美元以下?您在这里找不到确切的答案,但是这里有一些重要的因素需要考虑。

有几个突出的因素正在推动BTC上升:主要是由于当前全球各地的地缘政治和大流行引起的全球经济不稳定。在2020年,我们目睹了由冠状病毒病引起的不稳定,股市崩盘以及中美贸易战。 冠状病毒病引发的经济动荡也促使散户投资者重新考虑他们对本国货币的看法,这一因素也可能助长了比特币的飙升。美联储和其他中央银行对冠状病毒病引发的封锁做出了令人难以置信的快速而激烈的反应,这使人们认为法定货币可能不是衡量价值的一致标准。

美国央行决定在2020年实施的大规模量化宽松政策似乎已经动摇了公众对全能美元和其他主要法定货币的看法。随着各国央行继续向该系统注入流动性,投资者正在寻找供应量有限的任何东西。

比特币目前的交易几乎与2008年大萧条崩溃后的纳斯达克交易完全一样。从叙述和价格行为的角度来看,历史的纳斯达克图表和当前的比特币图表具有极其相似的价格行为。纳斯达克和BTC都有类似的基本叙述,因为市场在很大程度上也是由技术的指数性质驱动的。

似乎更多的投资者将在2020年使用期权获得ETH敞口。以太币是加密货币领域比特币的亚军,已经成为由大型机构和企业家发展社区支持的区块链可扩展性的主要实验实验室之一。因此,随着越来越分散的应用程序的开发,以太坊自然成为投机资产。以太坊即将到来的以太坊2.0权益证明转移以及去中心化金融 (DeFi)空间的快速增长已证明是推动看涨情绪的重要因素,同时也为网络增加了可信度。

但是,目前尚不清楚,比特币似乎从今年的全球事件中获得的势头是否会延续到未来。市场上仍然有巨大的交易量,而且利好消息和去中心化金融(DeFi)的增长不断推动市场的发展。但是,我认为,希望BTC突破之前的20,000美元的历史新高仍然遥遥无期。

尽管BTC在2020年最长的时间之一内保持在10,000美元以上,但比特币的当前势头仍有很大机会可能终结并回到2020年第二季度的价格水平.10,000美元仍然是重要的心理基准和如果BTC突破该支撑线,则可能开始近期牛市的结束。

根据历史图表,2019年6月,7月和8月的比特币价格稳定在10,000美元以上,至13,500美元。

但是,在2019年9月,BTC失去了动力,到2019年12月中旬跌至7,170美元。尽管比特币的高波动性历史最近有所减少,但仍然很普遍。

BTC的崛起对于替代币也将是重要的时刻,因为大多数加密货币都与BTC挂钩,而替代币的价格表现通常与BTC的走势相关。但是,请记住,无论BTC在牛市还是熊市中运行,替代币通常都会在以后追赶价格变动,因此,重要的是经常跟踪BTC的价格变动!在某些情况下,由于进入BTC的交易量增加,BTC的增长将导致替代币的价格下跌。投资者可能为了BTC出售他们的替代币投资组合,希望获得快速的利润。

***此内容不是财务建议,不应作为任何财务投资决策的基础,也不应被视为购买或出售任何商品或产品的建议。交易加密货币很复杂,并且有很高的赔钱风险。您应该仔细考虑交易加密货币是否适合您,并花点时间学习交易的工作方式并确定您准备冒多少风险。

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