Will BTC go above $20,000? 比特币会超越20,000美元吗？
A common question whenever BTC goes on a bull run. Will it happen in 2020? BTC在牛市中经常遇到的一个常见问题。比特币最终会在2020年突破2万美元吗？
2020 has been an eventful year so far for Bitcoin — after a spectacular price crash in March, BTC still managed to sustain between $8,500 and $9,800 for nearly three months, but never succeeded in breaking through US$10,000. Until the recent bull run, Bitcoin had never managed to sustain close to or above $10,000 for a long time.
$10,000 may be in Bitcoin’s rearview mirror for some time to come, as on July 27th, BTC broke past $10,000 and hasn’t looked back since.
In fact, Bitcoin’s now seems to be teasing the $12k resistance level. Since July 28th, Bitcoin price movement has fluctuated between $11,200 and $11,800 and occasionally touched $12k. Some BTC evangelists even took a step further and made $50k as Bitcoin’s next major target.
What’s driving this latest bull run? Will Bitcoin keep up its momentum, or will BTC once again fall below $10k? You will find no definitive answer here but here are some important factors to take into account.
There are several highlighted factors that are pushing BTC upward: primarily due to the global economic instability caused by the current geopolitical and pandemic around the world. In 2020, we witnessed the instability caused by COVID-19, the stock market crash as well as the US and China trade war. The economic turmoil resulting from COVID-19 has also caused retail investors to reconsider their beliefs about their national currencies, a factor that could also be contributing to Bitcoin’s pump. The incredibly fast and drastic response of the Fed and other central banks to the COVID-induced lockdowns has planted the idea that fiat currencies may not be a consistent yardstick for measuring value.
The massive amount of quantitative easing that the United States central bank decided to execute in 2020 seems to have shaken the public perception of the almighty dollar and other major fiat currencies. As central banks continue to pump liquidity in the system, investors are looking for anything that has a limited supply.
Bitcoin is currently trading almost exactly as the Nasdaq did after 2008’s Great Recession crash. From a narrative and price action perspective, the historical Nasdaq chart and current Bitcoin chart have extremely similar price action. Both the Nasdaq and BTC have similar underlying narratives as markets largely driven by the exponential nature of technology as well.
More investors seem to be acquiring ETH exposure using options in 2020. Ether, being the runner up to Bitcoin in the cryptocurrency space, has become one of the main experimental labs for blockchain scalability backed by large institutional and entrepreneurial development communities. Therefore, it’s natural for ETH to become a speculative asset as more decentralized applications are developed. The upcoming Ethereum 2.0 update for Ethereum and the rapid growth of the DeFi space have proved to be big variables driving the bullish sentiment while adding more credibility to the network.
However, it’s unclear whether or not the momentum that Bitcoin seems to have gained from the global events of this year will continue into the future. There are still huge volumes on the market, and the market is constantly fueled by positive news and the growth of Decentralised Finance (DEFI). But hoping that BTC will run past the previous all-time high of US$20,000, in my opinion, still looks far away.
Despite BTC holding above US$10,000 for one of the longest periods of time in 2020, there is still a good chance that Bitcoin’s current momentum could come to an end and reverse back to the price level at Q2 2020. $10,000 remains a significant psychological benchmark and if BTC breaks that support line, it could commence the end of the recent bull run.
Based on the historical chart, the price of Bitcoin in June, July, and August of 2019 sat comfortably above $10k up to $13,500.
However, in September 2019, BTC lost its momentum and fell to $7,170 midway through December of 2019. Even though Bitcoin’s history of high volatility reduced in recent times, it is still prevalent.
The rise of BTC will be a significant moment for altcoins as well since most cryptocurrencies are pegged to BTC and the price performance of altcoins are often correlated with BTC’s movement. However, do remember that regardless of BTC going on a bull or bear market, Altcoins usually will catch up with the price movement later, so it is important to track BTC price movements frequently! On some occasions, BTC’s pump will cause altcoins’ prices to dip due to higher volume moving into BTC. Investors may be selling their portfolio for BTC hoping for a quick profit.
***Disclaimer: This content is not financial advice and should not form the basis of any financial investment decisions nor be seen as a recommendation to buy or sell any good or product. Trading cryptocurrency is complex and comes with a high risk of losing money. You should carefully consider whether trading cryptocurrencies is right for you and take the time to learn how trading works and decide how much money you are prepared to risk.
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实际上，比特币现在似乎在戏弄12,000美元的阻力位。自7月28日以来，比特币价格走势一直在$ 11,200和$ 11,800之间波动，偶尔触及$ 12k。一些BTC传教士甚至更进一步，将$ 50k作为比特币的下一个主要目标。
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