Market Outlook #4 嘉库市场展望 #4
Latest market trends, highlights and news 最新市场趋势，亮点和新闻
Back in March 2020, the fast-spreading COVID-19 forced businesses around the world to either shut down or go on an overstretched loss-making standby, causing mass layoffs back.
Fast forward to April 2020, we witnessed a shine of light in the glooming environment. Daily new cases are slowing in places like Italy, where they have stayed in the 4,000 range since March 30 as compared to its peak on March 21 with over 6,500 new cases reported.
While the pandemic’s effect on the economy has yet to soften, investors are slightly more confident and sanguine in the financial market. In the United States, the Federal Reserve’s efforts to stabilize the market with additional liquidity helped the stock market to rebound since the crash. Many believe the 90% recovery in the cryptocurrency market is correlated with the US central bank’s stimulus program. US Congress also decided to inject $2 trillion into the economy, leading investors to pump fiat into both traditional and crypto-assets.
The price of BTC is at $7,145 as of 9:45 pm (GMT+8), 6th April 2020, a 5% gain from the previous 24 hours. Looking at performance relative to other major altcoins, Ethereum (ETH) and EOS have posted an impressive 16% gain. As a result, Bitcoin dominance is down 1.5% at 65%. The cryptocurrency market as a whole has increased 86% off its lows of a little over $100 billion but still down 30% from its 2020 highs. This drastic rise and fall highlight the volatility in the cryptocurrency market over the last few weeks.
The move in the cryptocurrency market began during Asian financial market trading hours as Japan’s Nikkei index moved up 4.2%. In the United States of America, futures contracts on the Dow Jones Industrial Average also indicated some optimistic sign from investors, indicating a more than 700-point gain during the opening bell.
Part of that optimism in stock markets and in cryptocurrencies stems from a few glimmers of hope on the COVID-19 front.
Governments across the globe promised massive bailouts and stimulus programs designed to help alleviate the pain of increasing unemployment and economic recession. Although the public felt relief, economists quickly pounced, with experts asserting that these moves were all but certain to cause massive inflation and much more financial pain in the long run. Investors are moving their assets into cryptocurrencies, which have a fixed supply and cannot be manipulated by a central bank. This activity reinforces the notion that the public increasingly trusts Bitcoin and altcoins to be a valuable asset during times of economic stress.
While the global economy continues to face unprecedented uncertainty around different government’s monetary policy, cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin could prove to be an attractive investment vehicle to hedge against both inflation and counter party risks.
$8,000 is the key BTC price indicator that shows sign of the cryptocurrency market being back in a bull market.
With little over a month to go until the Bitcoin halving event in May 2020 and little selling interest at current prices, Bitcoin continues to look up at the key resistances, but despite the swift recovery from the dip to $4,000, the markets remain uncertain of whether the bull market has returned.
As with most technologies that made a global impact, blockchain technology will work within existing systems and not tear them down, in order to bring about real disruption. Regardless of the outcome of cryptocurrencies in the future, we will begin to see a greater number of traditional financial institutions incorporating blockchain, resulting in a greater number of people participating in capital markets.
***Disclaimer: This content is not financial advice and should not form the basis of any financial investment decisions nor be seen as a recommendation to buy or sell any good or product. Trading cryptocurrency is complex and comes with a high risk of losing money. You should carefully consider whether trading cryptocurrencies is right for you and take the time to learn how trading works and decide how much money you are prepared to risk.
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早在2020年3月，迅速蔓延的COVID-19迫使世界各地的企业关闭和转而过度亏损，导致大量裁员。
快进到2020年4月，我们目睹了在阴暗环境中的光芒。自3月30日以来，意大利等国的每日新病例正在放缓，自3月30日以来一直保持在4,000例之内，而3月21日达到顶峰，据报道有6,500例新病例。
尽管大流行对经济的影响尚未减弱，但投资者对金融市场的信心和乐观程度略高。在美国，美联储通过增加流动性来稳定市场的努力使股市自崩盘以来反弹。许多人认为，加密货币市场90％的复苏与美国中央银行的刺激计划有关。美国国会还决定向经济注入2万亿美元，促使投资者向传统资产和加密资产注入法定货币。
截至2020年4月6日晚上9:45（GMT + 8），BTC的价格为7,145美元，较之前24小时上涨5％。从相对于其他主要替代币的表现看，以太坊（ETH）和EOS增长了16％。结果，比特币的主导地位下降了1.5％，至65％。总体而言，加密货币市场已经从略高于1000亿美元的低点上涨了86％，但仍比2020年的高点下降了30％。这种急剧的上升和下降突显了过去几周加密货币市场的动荡。
随着日本日经指数上涨4.2％，加密货币市场开始在亚洲金融市场交易时段内移动。在美国，道琼斯工业平均指数上的期货合约也显示出投资者的一些乐观信号，表明开盘时上涨了700点以上。
股市和加密货币的乐观情绪部分归因于冠状病毒方面的一线希望。
全球各国政府承诺提供大规模救助和刺激计划，旨在减轻失业人数增加和经济衰退。尽管公众感到宽慰，但经济学家迅速采取了行动，专家们断言，从长远来看，这些举动几乎肯定会导致大规模的通货膨胀和更多的金融衰退。投资者将其资产转移到加密货币中，这种货币具有固定的供应量，不能被中央银行操纵。这项活动强化了这样一种观念，即公众在经济压力时期越来越相信比特币和替代币是一种宝贵的资产。
尽管全球经济在不同政府的货币政策方面继续面临前所未有的不确定性，但诸如比特币之类的加密货币可能被证明是对冲通胀和交易对手风险的有吸引力的投资工具。
8,000美元是关键的BTC价格指标，显示了加密货币市场重新回到牛市的迹象。
距离2020年5月的比特币减半事件只有一个多月的时间，而按当前价格出售的兴趣不大，比特币继续寻找关键阻力，但是尽管从跌幅迅速回升至4,000美元，市场仍不确定是否牛市又回来了。
与大多数具有全球影响力的技术一样，区块链技术将在现有系统中运行，而不会崩溃，以带来真正的破坏。不管未来加密货币的结果如何，我们将开始看到越来越多的传统金融机构采用了区块链技术，导致越来越多的人参与资本市场。
***此内容不是财务建议，不应作为任何财务投资决策的基础，也不应被视为购买或出售任何商品或产品的建议。交易加密货币很复杂，并且有很高的赔钱风险。您应该仔细考虑交易加密货币是否适合您，并花点时间学习交易的工作方式并确定您准备冒多少风险。
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